Replaced talk of a recession were thinking about rebuilding (the UK, continental Europe, the USA, Japan)

Everybody is interested in another question nowadays. Previously, it sounded like: "When the recession is over?" And now: "How the recovery will look like?" This applies to the UK, continental Europe, the USA, Japan, and the entire developed world. The answer to the first question, we know. As recently became known in France and Germany, the recession ended in the second quarter, while the Eurozone economy as a whole continues to decline slightly. Economic growth in Britain and the United States continue to slow, but in this quarter may increase. (Prbably ,the dark hole was reached in May or June). Japan also demonstrates a willingness to grow. Among the laggards Italy and Spain, but by the end of the year, their cases will go up the hill, as in all other countries. New data on the GDP in the second quarter for France, Germany and Italy provide food for thought. Certainly, two of the three largest continental economies have shown excellent results and, apparently, ahead of Britain. Lightly argue over which country will be the first of a recession and which will fall further, and so all While we do not know all of the data, and in any event in the coming months they will be more than once reviewed. Therefore, simply relax and rejoice at growth that has returned at last, and no matter which country will be the first.Unfortunately, the beginning of the restoration does not say anything about its potential power, and there are a number of reasons to be particularly careful. First of all here is the weakness of the global banking system, high levels of personal debt, especially among U.S. consumers, the pressure on consumption due to the ever growing unemployment, the need to implement various support measures governments around the world. The conventional wisdom that the recovery will be slower and longer than all previous ones, not only in Britain but throughout the world. The growth will resume, but will not be so strong and certainly will not help to improve overall mood. I share the widespread view that the recovery will be modest. To be sure that next year's budget for the UK will be limited, the reduction of VAT will be uncontrolled, the program to promote sales of used cars (which also helped to improve the situation) will come to an end, etc. What's worse, all this will last for years. Taxes will remain high and government spending will continue to decline in coming years that it is necessary to return control of the country's finances. Yet Britain's economy is in much better condition than generally assumed. The starting point is a new report on inflation, the Bank of England. Judging by the headlines, now the Bank is much stronger than three months ago. A recession was deeper than anticipated, the manager warned of the risks and so decrease Central banks should be cautious, because they pay for it. But, looking at the fan charts Bank, I caught myself thinking that they are not so bad. The Bank of England expects that growth will begin in a few months earlier than initial projections. In addition, he was optimistic with regard to rehabilitation in the next year than it was three months ago. Indeed, the Bank refused to expectations of growth less than 0.5% in favor of rate close to 2%. Of course, this is only a withdrawal from the Bank of reflection, I have summarized his forecasts, focusing on key indicators, while the Bank stresses that describes only the possible developments. And yet, in my opinion, the Bank made dramatic mood changes. When the report was published May, the Bank has been set too dark for the restoration. It seems that now its spirit has grown. So, how differs this downturn from the previous? If the forecast of the Bank would be true, the recession will not be so serious as in the early 80's. But deeper than the recession in the early 90's. Of course, before the Depression, 30-ies. it is still far. And that's not all. What form will have a recovery? Trend growth in the UK is approximately 2.5%. However, production fell nearly 6%. Therefore, if simply to return to trend growth, the production will be lost forever. The Ministry of Finance says, at least as far as can be judged by its forecasts for the time of the report on the budget. Suppose that the growth will revert to the mean, as after previous recessions. In other words, instead of 2.5%, which were observed during the recovery from past recessions, this time, growth should be above that mark for several years. If in the next few years, growth will exceed 3% of all the terrible figures associated with the fiscal deficit, are beginning to look not so frightening. I am not trying to diminish the magnitude of fiscal disaster, caused by the fault of the government. As rightly observed by Alistair Darling, would require a change of the two parliaments in order to return control of the financial situation of the country. I mean, that lost production can be returned and, if appropriate policies, six or seven years the situation has to develop. These are only assumptions. Projected line growth looks smoother than the true path: the road to recovery awaits us is not small obstacles. Whatever one may say, this is a very serious recession. We suffered heavy losses and, sadly, people have to savory. But, most importantly, there is every reason to believe that this decline does not go beyond the post-war recession, and to some extent this can be termed "normal." But that is not easy.